The New York Fed’s DSGE model forecasts higher core PCE inflation at 2.7% and lower output growth at 1.0% for 2024, attributing changes to cost-push shocks and monetary policy.
Amazon’s Prime Week prompts retailers to offer competitive discounts, aiming to attract value-oriented shoppers while facing inflation, with increased online discount penetration and evolving consumer preferences.
Stocks are at record highs as Q2 earnings season begins, with companies likely to beat estimates by about 5%. Analysts maintain positive outlooks despite recession risks being elevated.
QQQJ ETF, targeting Nasdaq Next Generation 100, includes promising tech stocks like Zoom, NICE, and Paylocity, offering growth opportunities in a market dominated by mega-cap equities.
The Fed’s potential interest rate cuts may boost small cap stocks, regional banks, and real estate, prompting a significant market shift and attracting investors seeking higher returns.
The UST yield curve’s potential “un”inversion timing hinges on Fed rate cuts, with the UST 2-Year/10-Year spread likely reversing before the UST 3-Month/10-Year spread.
Moat Index reviews revealed a contrarian bias towards large caps, reduced Financials exposure, and increased allocations in Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Technology, remaining underweight in growth stocks.
The shift to automatic retirement savings, like higher default rates, improves participation and investor behavior, positively affecting stock market valuations while highlighting the limitations of defined contribution plans.
The banking sector shows potential recovery as interest rates may soon lower, with investor sentiment shifting and earnings reports exceeding expectations, presenting buying opportunities in ETFs like KBE and KRE.
A balanced portfolio, while providing stability, often leads to regrets as market performance varies. Diversification reduces risk but can’t predict future outcomes, emphasizing the importance of a long-term strategy.
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---title: "Today's Financial Curation (15.07.24): Fed's Inflation Forecast, Q2 Earnings Surge, ETF Market Shifts, and Automatic Savings Boost"page-layout: fulltitle-block-banner: truedate: 07-15-2024categories: [economics,fundamental,market-feed,portfolio-construction]tags: [inflation, stocks, etfs, consumer, interest, rates, discounts, diversification, technology, behavioral]image: /pictures/mathematics-formulas-on-a-blackboard.png---::: {layout-ncol=2}:::{#first-column}In today's curation, we explore a range of critical financial topics that impact current market dynamics:- The New York Fed's inflation and output growth predictions- Amazon's competitive strategies amidst Prime Week- Insights from Q2 earnings season and stock performance- Opportunities in the QQQJ ETF showcasing tech growth- Implications of potential Fed interest rate cuts - The UST yield curve and its relevance to rate changes- The Moat Index's recent findings on market trends- The benefits of automatic retirement savings - Recovery signs in the banking sector - The complexities of maintaining a balanced investment portfolio:::::::::{#second-column}::::::# Economics| Title | Summary ||-----|-----------|| [Why Inflation is Surging and Growth is Slumping: Key Insights from the New York Fed's Latest Forecast (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2024-06-14)](https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/06/the-new-york-fed-dsge-model-forecast-june-2024/) | The New York Fed's DSGE model forecasts higher core PCE inflation at 2.7% and lower output growth at 1.0% for 2024, attributing changes to cost-push shocks and monetary policy. || [Savvy Challenges: How Retailers Leverage Amazon Prime Week to Battle Inflation and Woo Value-Conscious Consumers (LSEG Workspace, 2024-07-15)](https://lipperalpha.refinitiv.com/2024/07/savvy-shoppers-await-prime-week-deal-competition/) | Amazon's Prime Week prompts retailers to offer competitive discounts, aiming to attract value-oriented shoppers while facing inflation, with increased online discount penetration and evolving consumer preferences. |# Fundamental Investing| Title | Summary ||-----|-----------|| [Earnings Season Q2 2024: Why Most Companies Consistently Surpass Analysts' Expectations (TKer, 2024-07-15)](https://www.tker.co/p/earnings-season-q2-24-beat-rates) | Stocks are at record highs as Q2 earnings season begins, with companies likely to beat estimates by about 5%. Analysts maintain positive outlooks despite recession risks being elevated. || [Discover Hidden Tech Gems: The Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen ETF's Potential in Small-Cap Stocks (ETF Trends, 2024-07-15)](https://www.etftrends.com/etf-education-channel/time-different-small-cap-stocks-finally-perking-up/) | QQQJ ETF, targeting Nasdaq Next Generation 100, includes promising tech stocks like Zoom, NICE, and Paylocity, offering growth opportunities in a market dominated by mega-cap equities. |# Market Pulse & Market News| Title | Summary ||-----|-----------|| [Prepare for Market Shake-Up: Key Sectors Poised to Surge as Fed Signals Interest Rate Cuts Before Election (Unknown, 2024-07-15)](https://moneymorning.com/2024/07/15/these-three-investment-are-getting-ready-to-be-jerome-powells-favorite/) | The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may boost small cap stocks, regional banks, and real estate, prompting a significant market shift and attracting investors seeking higher returns. || [Why You Should Care About the Timing of the Yield Curve's Next Move (WisdomTree's website, 2024-07-15)](https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/blog/2024/07/10/when-will-the-yield-curve-uninvert) | The UST yield curve's potential "un"inversion timing hinges on Fed rate cuts, with the UST 2-Year/10-Year spread likely reversing before the UST 3-Month/10-Year spread. || [Smart Investing: How Quarterly Reviews Shape the Moat Index and Spotlight Top Undervalued Companies (Moat Index Quarterly Review, 2024-07-15)](https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/moat-investing/moat-stocks-steady-amid-techs-market-surge/) | Moat Index reviews revealed a contrarian bias towards large caps, reduced Financials exposure, and increased allocations in Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Technology, remaining underweight in growth stocks. || [Elevate Your Retirement Savings: How Higher Default Rates and Automatic Investing Are Reshaping Financial Futures (A Wealth of Common Sense, 2024-07-15)](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/07/the-automatic-investing-revolution/) | The shift to automatic retirement savings, like higher default rates, improves participation and investor behavior, positively affecting stock market valuations while highlighting the limitations of defined contribution plans. || [Banking Renaissance: Why Investor Sentiment Shift Signals a Golden Opportunity in Financial Stocks (Unknown, 2024-07-15)](https://moneymorning.com/2024/07/15/this-bullish-trend-in-banks-is-just-starting-grab-it-now/) | The banking sector shows potential recovery as interest rates may soon lower, with investor sentiment shifting and earnings reports exceeding expectations, presenting buying opportunities in ETFs like KBE and KRE. |# Portfolio Construction Techniques| Title | Summary ||-----|-----------|| [Balancing Investments: Why Diversification May Seem Boring But Is Actually Smart and Lowers Your Risk (None, 2024-07-14)](https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2024/07/a-balanced-portfolio-always-comes-with-regrets/) | A balanced portfolio, while providing stability, often leads to regrets as market performance varies. Diversification reduces risk but can't predict future outcomes, emphasizing the importance of a long-term strategy. |
